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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KFUM Oslo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat KFUM Oslo 1-3 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.41 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 35%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 43%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.23 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights