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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KFUM Oslo and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 25, as KFUM Oslo and Kristiansund BK drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 2.48 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.95 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.76 / defence 1.33, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 71% | Draw 17% | Kristiansund BK 12%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 46%, Kristiansund BK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.30 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights