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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 19, as KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.54 xG and Ham-Kam 0.89 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Ham-Kam attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 52% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 21%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 46%, Ham-Kam 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.31 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights