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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KFUM Oslo and Bryne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 12, as KFUM Oslo and Bryne drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 2.13 xG and Bryne 1.17 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.21 / defence 1.00 against Bryne attack 0.87 / defence 1.18, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 59% | Draw 21% | Bryne 20%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 64%, Bryne 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Bryne's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.00 PPG, Bryne 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bryne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights