Haugesund 2-3 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Haugesund and Stromsgodset meet at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Haugesund (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Stadion: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Eliteserien appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game.
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Haugesund's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Stromsgodset's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Haugesund — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 31% versus Stromsgodset 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 38% | Stromsgodset 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.51 xG and Stromsgodset 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.792 / defence 1.195 | Stromsgodset attack 0.842 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.340. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Haugesund games / 13 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 41% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 34%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 43% | Stromsgodset 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 41% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Haugesund 1.51 / Stromsgodset 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.792 / def 1.195 | Stromsgodset attack 0.842 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Stromsgodset xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 August 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Haugesund 2 - 3 Stromsgodset.
Where is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset part of?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 41% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haugesund and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.79) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.84x) against Haugesund's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
41%
2.42
25%
4.02
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.86
1.35
Stromsgodset xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.35 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 4W 3D 6L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Haugesund against 1.15 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.46 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 62%.
Defensively: Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Stromsgodset away?
Haugesund's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.67 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stromsgodset have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-5 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
2
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 33%, Stromsgodset 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Haugesund) and 67% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 33% of games; Stromsgodset in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Haugesund's recent matches and 50% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Haugesund's matches and 67% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Haugesund and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Haugesund 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Haugesund 2-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.51 xG and Stromsgodset 1.35 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Stromsgodset outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Stromsgodset attack 0.84 / defence 1.42, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 41% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 34%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 38%, Stromsgodset 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.15 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.