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Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rosenborg beat Haugesund 0-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.31 xG and Rosenborg 1.68 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.70 / defence 1.37 against Rosenborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 46%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 53%, Rosenborg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haugesund's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rosenborg's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights