Haugesund vs Moss – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Moss's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Moss's attack (0.85x) against Haugesund's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.56
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.28
0.98
Moss xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Moss?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Moss expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.98 for Moss, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Moss?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.