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Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Haugesund and Kristiansund BK drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.00 xG and Kristiansund BK 2.11 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.56 / defence 1.41 against Kristiansund BK attack 1.06 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haugesund 17% | Draw 21% | Kristiansund BK 63%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 44%, Kristiansund BK 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haugesund's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.16 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights