🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ham-Kam beat Haugesund 0-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.79 xG and Ham-Kam 1.33 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.47 / defence 1.32 against Ham-Kam attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haugesund 22% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 49%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 50%, Ham-Kam 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Haugesund 0.75 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights