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Dominant Bryne run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bryne beat Haugesund 1-4 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.60 xG and Bryne 1.41 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bryne outscored their 1.41 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.71 / defence 1.48 against Bryne attack 0.70 / defence 1.28, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haugesund 42% | Draw 24% | Bryne 34%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bryne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 66%, Bryne 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haugesund's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Bryne's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bryne arrived the stronger side — 0.97 PPG against 0.31. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bryne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights