Haugesund 1-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brann at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Brann travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 17 June 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.60 xG and Brann 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Brann attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.612 / away 1.841. Data: 0 Haugesund games / 0 Brann games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 9% | Draw 28% | Brann 63%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 11.11 | Draw 3.57 | Brann 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Brann (63%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Jun 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 9% | Draw 28% | Brann 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Haugesund 0.60 / Brann 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Brann attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.612 / away 1.841 • Poisson stance: Brann (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.60
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Brann xG
41%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Brann kick off?
Haugesund vs Brann kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 17 June 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Haugesund 1 - 2 Brann.
Where is Haugesund vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Brann part of?
Haugesund vs Brann is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 9% chance of winning, Brann a 63% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Haugesund and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Brann in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.85) and Brann's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.7%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
9%
11.38
28%
3.61
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.60
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.40
1.80
Brann xG
11.38
9%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
55%
1.82
Win to Nil
1%
68.82
35%
2.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 16.4 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 0.60 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.80 for Brann, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Pre-Season
Brann
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Brann have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Haugesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Haugesund 1-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.60 xG and Brann 1.80 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Brann attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 9% | Draw 28% | Brann 63%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.