🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Brann cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Haugesund 0-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.17 xG and Brann 2.11 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.67 / defence 1.28 against Brann attack 1.22 / defence 1.11, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haugesund 21% | Draw 21% | Brann 59%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 47%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights