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Dominant Viking run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Ham-Kam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Ham-Kam 2-5 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.75 xG and Viking 1.17 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Viking outscored their 1.17 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Viking attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 51% | Draw 24% | Viking 25%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, Viking 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights