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Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Valerenga 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ham-Kam beat Valerenga 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.15 xG and Valerenga 1.40 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Valerenga attack 0.97 / defence 1.34, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 54%, Valerenga 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Valerenga's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.04 PPG, Valerenga 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights