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Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Ham-Kam 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stromsgodset beat Ham-Kam 1-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Stromsgodset 1.54 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Stromsgodset attack 0.97 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 36%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 44%, Stromsgodset 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Stromsgodset's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.08 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights