Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ham-Kam welcome Sandefjord to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 6W 2D 2L at Briskeby Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Ham-Kam) versus 0.60 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ham-Kam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ham-Kam: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Sandefjord, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Ham-Kam a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sandefjord trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 58% versus Sandefjord 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 67% | Sandefjord 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.52 xG and Sandefjord 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.937 / defence 1.151 | Sandefjord attack 0.902 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 48 Ham-Kam games / 48 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 37%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Sandefjord 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Ham-Kam 1.52 / Sandefjord 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.937 / def 1.151 | Sandefjord attack 0.902 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sandefjord xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord part of?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 39% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ham-Kam and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Record (9 meetings): Ham-Kam 6W | Draws 2 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
39%
2.59
25%
4.07
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.99
1.48
Sandefjord xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.48 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 12D 20L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.40 PPG from 48 outings (20W 7D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.25 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ham-Kam's home form reads 12W 5D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Ham-Kam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (7W 2D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.46 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 20W 7D 21L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Sandefjord away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.71 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 6, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ham-Kam at 71%, Sandefjord at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ham-Kam and 71% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ham-Kam's games and 75% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ham-Kam's matches and 71% of Sandefjord's.
Do Ham-Kam and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.