Ham-Kam 0-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 39%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Ham-Kam (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rosenborg have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rosenborg are 1.00 PPG clear of Ham-Kam over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Rosenborg edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Ham-Kam 0–1 Rosenborg — a Rosenborg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Rosenborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 51% | Rosenborg 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ham-Kam surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Rosenborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.37 xG and Rosenborg 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.880 / defence 0.876 | Rosenborg attack 1.145 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.289. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 57 games and Rosenborg's last 57.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.57 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 30% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 28 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Ham-Kam 1.37 / Rosenborg 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.880 / def 0.876 | Rosenborg attack 1.145 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Rosenborg xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg FAQs
What time does Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Ham-Kam 0 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg part of?
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 28) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 39% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ham-Kam and Rosenborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.88) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.15x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Ham-Kam's last 57 games and Rosenborg's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.85
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
Rosenborg xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.29 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 18W 13D 26L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 22L across 57 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.49 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 10W 7D 11L from their last 28 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.60 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 63%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
Ham-Kam (Home) vs Rosenborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ham-Kam
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg Form FAQs
What form are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 18W 13D 26L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 25W 10D 22L in their last 57 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Rosenborg away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.32 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Rosenborg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won Rosenborg 4-0 Ham-Kam on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
7
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ham-Kam have won 2, Rosenborg have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Rosenborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Ham-Kam 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 32%, Rosenborg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ham-Kam) and 71% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ham-Kam and Rosenborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 68% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Ham-Kam's matches and 71% of Rosenborg's.
Do Ham-Kam and Rosenborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 82% of Rosenborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Ham-Kam 0-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.37 xG and Rosenborg 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Rosenborg attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 51%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.18 PPG, Rosenborg 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.