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Shock result as Ham-Kam defy the odds to beat Molde 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ham-Kam beat Molde 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.11 xG and Molde 1.51 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Molde attack 0.97 / defence 0.78, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 27% | Draw 27% | Molde 46%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Ham-Kam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Molde (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights