Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Fredrikstad (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Fredrikstad.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.

Fredrikstad have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Fredrikstad arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Fredrikstad, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Fredrikstad winning.

It is worth noting that Fredrikstad have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 58% versus Fredrikstad 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 69% | Fredrikstad 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.41 xG and Fredrikstad 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.714 / defence 1.272 | Fredrikstad attack 0.929 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.567. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Ham-Kam games / 55 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 29% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 48%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Fredrikstad 2.08. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 50% | Fredrikstad 70% BTTS from recent games.

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