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Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Fredrikstad 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Fredrikstad 0-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.56 xG and Viking 1.79 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fredrikstad fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Viking attack 1.33 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 34% | Draw 23% | Viking 43%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Viking 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Viking's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights