Fredrikstad 1-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fredrikstad face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Valerenga travel to Fredrikstad Stadion to take on Fredrikstad in Eliteserien (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Fredrikstad have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valerenga stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Valerenga's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fredrikstad 1.20 PPG, Valerenga 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Fredrikstad's last 10 home games and Valerenga's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Fredrikstad, 0 for Valerenga and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Jul 2025, ended Fredrikstad 1–1 Valerenga — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fredrikstad trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Valerenga trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 45% versus Valerenga 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 38% | Valerenga 59%). Note also that Valerenga surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Fredrikstad recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.71 xG and Valerenga 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.108 / defence 0.951 | Valerenga attack 1.054 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.377. Data: built from Fredrikstad's last 33 games and Valerenga's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 45% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 31%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.21 | Draw 4.25 | Valerenga 3.21. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fredrikstad's last 10 home games and Valerenga's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fredrikstad 70% (last 10 home games) | Valerenga 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Fredrikstad 33 games, Valerenga 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 4 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 45% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Fredrikstad 1.71 / Valerenga 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 1.108 / def 0.951 | Valerenga attack 1.054 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Valerenga xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fredrikstad vs Valerenga FAQs
What time does Fredrikstad vs Valerenga kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Fredrikstad 1 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Valerenga part of?
Fredrikstad vs Valerenga is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 4) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 45% chance of winning, Valerenga a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fredrikstad and Valerenga will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fredrikstad vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (1.11) and Valerenga's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fredrikstad's last 33 games and Valerenga's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.25
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
3.09
1.38
Valerenga xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
6%
17.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fredrikstad vs Valerenga Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.38 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 10W 9D 10L from 29 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 13L across 29 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fredrikstad on 1.34 PPG, Valerenga on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 6W 4D 4L from their last 14 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 4W 0D 10L across their last 14 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.59 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 66%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
Fredrikstad (Home) vs Valerenga (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Fredrikstad vs Valerenga Form FAQs
What form are Fredrikstad and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 10W 9D 10L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 12W 4D 13L in their last 29 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Valerenga away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.57 PPG; Valerenga away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2025. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fredrikstad
3
Draws
0
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Fredrikstad vs Valerenga H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Valerenga?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Fredrikstad have won 1, Valerenga have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Valerenga last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Valerenga 1-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Valerenga?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 57%, Valerenga 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Fredrikstad) and 57% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fredrikstad vs Valerenga Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fredrikstad and Valerenga matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fredrikstad's games and 57% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fredrikstad and Valerenga matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 57% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Valerenga matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 64% of Valerenga's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad and Valerenga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Fredrikstad and Valerenga drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.71 xG and Valerenga 1.38 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.11 / defence 0.95 against Valerenga attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 45% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 31%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 38%, Valerenga 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.34 PPG, Valerenga 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.