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Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valerenga.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat Valerenga 2-0 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.88 xG and Valerenga 0.81 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valerenga landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Valerenga attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 16%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Valerenga 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights