Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's home record at Fredrikstad Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Fredrikstad 2W, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 48% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 46% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.21 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.797 / defence 0.847 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.874 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Fredrikstad games / 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 39% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 32%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 39% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Fredrikstad 1.21 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.797 / def 0.847 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.874 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is scheduled to kick off at 17:15 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 39% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (5 meetings): Fredrikstad 2W | Draws 2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.80x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.87x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
39%
2.53
29%
3.47
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.26
1.05
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.05 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 19W 11D 18L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 17W 13D 18L from 48 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.33 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.42 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 19W 11D 18L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.78 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 56%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fredrikstad) and 70% (Sarpsborg 08 FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fredrikstad's games and 56% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Fredrikstad's matches and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.