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Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.22 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.06 / defence 0.79, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 36% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 36%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights