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Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 2.01 xG and Sandefjord 0.89 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Sandefjord attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 16%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Sandefjord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights