Fredrikstad 0-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fredrikstad face Rosenborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 4W 3D 3L at Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Rosenborg, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2026, ended 0–4 with Rosenborg winning.
It is worth noting that Rosenborg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 54% versus Rosenborg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 46% | Rosenborg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.09 xG and Rosenborg 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.758 / defence 0.845 | Rosenborg attack 1.239 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.784 / away 1.514. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rosenborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.239 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Fredrikstad games / 54 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 26% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 48%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 2.08. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 70% | Rosenborg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 26% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Fredrikstad 1.09 / Rosenborg 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.758 / def 0.845 | Rosenborg attack 1.239 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.784 / away 1.514 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Rosenborg xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Fredrikstad 0 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg part of?
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 26% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fredrikstad and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
Record (5 meetings): Fredrikstad 0W | Draws 2 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.76x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.24x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
26%
3.89
26%
3.87
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.67
1.58
Rosenborg xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
5%
19.00
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.58 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 19W 14D 21L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 18L across 54 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.52 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 12W 7D 7L from 26 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 8W 4D 14L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.69 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Rosenborg away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.65 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 0, Rosenborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Fredrikstad 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 62%, Rosenborg 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fredrikstad) and 62% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 35%; Rosenborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 35% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 62% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Fredrikstad 0-3 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.09 xG and Rosenborg 1.58 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.76 / defence 0.84 against Rosenborg attack 1.24 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 26% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 48%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 46%, Rosenborg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.31 PPG, Rosenborg 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.