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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Fredrikstad have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 4W 3D 3L at Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Rosenborg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rosenborg away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fredrikstad, 2 for Rosenborg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Rosenborg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Stats

Across 12 matches this season, Fredrikstad have gone 4W 2D 6L. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 12 games (17%). Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.

Rosenborg's full-season record stands at 3W 3D 6L from 12 games. Their scoring output is 1.0 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 12 games (8%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 1 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.

Rosenborg have been awarded 2 penalties this season (1 scored).

Current Standings

In the Eliteserien table, Fredrikstad sit 10th on 14 points, 3 places and 2 points ahead of Rosenborg in 13th.

At home this season, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 1D 2L. On the road, Rosenborg's record stands at 0W 1D 4L this term.

Trading Data

Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 52% versus Rosenborg 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 48% | Rosenborg 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.832 / defence 1.127 | Rosenborg attack 0.695 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.164. Data: 42 Fredrikstad games / 42 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 51% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 23%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 4.35. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 80% | Rosenborg 20%.

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