Fredrikstad 2-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees ODD Ballklubb travel to Nye Fredrikstad Stadion to take on Fredrikstad. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fredrikstad stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Fredrikstad) versus 0.90 (ODD Ballklubb). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fredrikstad, 0 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Fredrikstad winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fredrikstad in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 35% versus ODD Ballklubb 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | ODD Ballklubb 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.01 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.654 / defence 0.970 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.761 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.292. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Fredrikstad games / 50 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 36% | Draw 31% | ODD Ballklubb 33%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | ODD Ballklubb 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 30% | ODD Ballklubb 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 36% | Draw 31% | ODD Ballklubb 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Fredrikstad 1.01 / ODD Ballklubb 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.654 / def 0.970 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.761 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
0.95
ODD Ballklubb xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb?
Fredrikstad 2 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 36% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (1 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.65) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.21
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
1.96
0.95
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 0.95 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fredrikstad come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 7D 5L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 0.90 PPG from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fredrikstad's home form reads 3W 5D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb in 60%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 8W 7D 5L in their last 20 games (1.55 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.56 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fredrikstad
0
Draws
0
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb?
From 2 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2024, when Fredrikstad 2-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 33%, ODD Ballklubb 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fredrikstad) and 44% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 44% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 44% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 44% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat ODD Ballklubb 2-0 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.01 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.95 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.65 / defence 0.97 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 36% | Draw 31% | ODD Ballklubb 33%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, ODD Ballklubb 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.