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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Molde.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat Molde 4-2 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.13 xG and Molde 1.11 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Molde outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against Molde attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 35% | Draw 30% | Molde 34%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 37%, Molde 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Molde's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.60 PPG, Molde 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights