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Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kristiansund BK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat Kristiansund BK 3-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.86 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 56% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 20%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 39%, Kristiansund BK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.55 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights