Fredrikstad 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fredrikstad host Haugesund at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 14 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fredrikstad — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's home record at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion: 2W 5D 1L from 8 Eliteserien appearances (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fredrikstad 1.40 PPG, Haugesund 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Fredrikstad in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 41% versus Haugesund 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 41% | Haugesund 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.40 xG and Haugesund 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.760 / defence 0.850 | Haugesund attack 1.101 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.344. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Fredrikstad games / 47 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 40% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 34%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Haugesund 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 38% | Haugesund 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 40% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Fredrikstad 1.40 / Haugesund 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.760 / def 0.850 | Haugesund attack 1.101 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Haugesund xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Haugesund kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Haugesund kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 14 August 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Fredrikstad 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Haugesund part of?
Fredrikstad vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 40% chance of winning, Haugesund a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fredrikstad and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fredrikstad and Haugesund in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fredrikstad's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.82
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.66
1.26
Haugesund xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.26 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 7W 7D 3L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 5W 2D 10L from 17 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fredrikstad are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (2W 5D 1L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.06 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 7W 7D 3L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Haugesund away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.38 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Haugesund in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Haugesund?
From 4 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 1, Haugesund have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Fredrikstad 2-2 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 38%, Haugesund 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Fredrikstad) and 62% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Fredrikstad's games and 75% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 62% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Haugesund tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Haugesund 1-0 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.40 xG and Haugesund 1.26 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.76 / defence 0.85 against Haugesund attack 1.10 / defence 1.28, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 40% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 34%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 41%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haugesund's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.