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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fredrikstad and Bryne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad and Bryne finished level at 1-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.95 xG and Bryne 1.03 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Bryne attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 58% | Draw 23% | Bryne 19%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 38%, Bryne 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Bryne's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bryne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights