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Dominant Fredrikstad run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Brann.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat Brann 3-0 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.41 xG and Brann 1.35 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brann landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Brann attack 1.09 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 39% | Draw 26% | Brann 36%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Brann 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.70 PPG, Brann 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights