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Tromso cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bryne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tromso beat Bryne 0-2 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.42 xG and Tromso 1.65 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bryne fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Tromso attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bryne 33% | Draw 25% | Tromso 43%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bryne 55%, Tromso 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bryne's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Tromso's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bryne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights