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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bryne and Stromsgodset share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Bryne and Stromsgodset drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.65 xG and Stromsgodset 1.38 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Stromsgodset attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bryne 43% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 31%, with Bryne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bryne 50%, Stromsgodset 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bryne's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Stromsgodset's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bryne arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights