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Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bryne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Bryne 0-3 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.74 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bryne fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bryne 43% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, with Bryne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bryne 54%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bryne's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bryne 1.00 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Bryne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights