🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bryne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Molde beat Bryne 0-3 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.26 xG and Molde 1.16 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bryne fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.88 / defence 1.07 against Molde attack 0.82 / defence 0.91, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bryne 36% | Draw 32% | Molde 31%, with Bryne to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights