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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bryne defy the odds to beat Fredrikstad 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bryne beat Fredrikstad 4-3 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 0.87 xG and Fredrikstad 1.26 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Bryne beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fredrikstad outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Fredrikstad attack 0.73 / defence 0.76, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bryne 25% | Draw 31% | Fredrikstad 44%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Bryne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights