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Shock result as Bryne defy the odds to beat Brann 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bryne beat Brann 2-1 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.31 xG and Brann 1.91 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Brann landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Brann attack 1.23 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bryne 25% | Draw 24% | Brann 51%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Bryne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bryne 50%, Brann 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bryne's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Brann's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Bryne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights