Brann 1-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 12 as Brann welcome Valerenga to Brann Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 August 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valerenga — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Brann) versus 1.60 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 64% versus Valerenga 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 64% | Valerenga 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.47 xG and Valerenga 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.025 / defence 1.104 | Valerenga attack 0.700 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.306. Data: 11 Brann games / 11 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 26%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Valerenga 3.85. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Brann 80% | Valerenga 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Brann 1.47 / Valerenga 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.025 / def 1.104 | Valerenga attack 0.700 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Brann (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Valerenga xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Valerenga kick off?
Brann vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 1 August 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Valerenga?
Brann 1 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Brann vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Valerenga part of?
Brann vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 48% chance of winning, Valerenga a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Brann and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Valerenga?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Valerenga in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.02x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.76
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Brann xG
Total xG
2.48
1.01
Valerenga xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Brann and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Brann and 1.01 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Brann have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 4W 3D 4L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga's form line: 5W 4D 2L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.36 PPG, Valerenga on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brann are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Valerenga in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Valerenga away?
Brann's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.60 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Brann or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Valerenga in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2020, when Valerenga won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Brann
0
Draws
5
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Valerenga?
From 9 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Valerenga have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Brann 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 80%, Valerenga at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Brann) and 40% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Brann's games and 60% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Brann's recent games and 40% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and Valerenga tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valerenga defy the odds to beat Brann 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Brann 1-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.47 xG and Valerenga 1.01 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Valerenga outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Valerenga attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 48% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 26%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Valerenga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 64%, Valerenga 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.36 PPG, Valerenga 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.