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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Valerenga 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Valerenga 3-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.16 xG and Valerenga 1.26 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Valerenga attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 57% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 21%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 70%, Valerenga 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brann's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Valerenga's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brann 1.90 PPG, Valerenga 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Valerenga (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights