Brann 0-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host Stromsgodset at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brann — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stromsgodset's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Brann have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Brann, 3 for Stromsgodset and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 57% versus Stromsgodset 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 60% | Stromsgodset 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.73 xG and Stromsgodset 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.096 / defence 0.857 | Stromsgodset attack 0.927 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.513. Data: 43 Brann games / 41 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 50% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 27%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Stromsgodset 3.70. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brann 70% | Stromsgodset 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 50% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Brann 1.73 / Stromsgodset 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.096 / def 0.857 | Stromsgodset attack 0.927 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Brann (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Stromsgodset xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Brann vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 June 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Brann 0 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Brann vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Stromsgodset part of?
Brann vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 50% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Brann and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Stromsgodset?
Record (6 meetings): Brann 2W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 3W.
What form are Brann and Stromsgodset in?
Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brann's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.22
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Brann xG
Total xG
2.93
1.20
Stromsgodset xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
5%
21.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Brann and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Brann and 1.20 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 30 games, going 19W 4D 7L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Stromsgodset sit at 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (13W 3D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 12W 2D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stromsgodset have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (5W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.23 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 19W 4D 7L in their last 30 games (2.03 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 13W 3D 14L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Stromsgodset away?
Brann's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.53 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Brann or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2021, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Brann
2
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Stromsgodset?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 67%, Stromsgodset 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Brann) and 27% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Brann's recent matches and 40% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Brann's recent games and 27% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Stromsgodset finished level at 0-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.73 xG and Stromsgodset 1.20 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Stromsgodset attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 50% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 27%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Stromsgodset 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.