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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as Brann and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.12 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.09 / defence 0.80 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.66, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 33% | Draw 33% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 34%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights