Brann 3-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as Brann welcome Sandefjord to Brann Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 July 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Brann have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 1W 1D 4L from 6 Eliteserien matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sandefjord have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Brann are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.67 vs 0.67). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 50% versus Sandefjord 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 83% | Sandefjord 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.71 xG and Sandefjord 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.106 / defence 1.052 | Sandefjord attack 0.626 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.594. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Brann games / 6 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 53% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 23%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 4.35. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Brann 50% | Sandefjord 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 53% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Brann 1.71 / Sandefjord 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.106 / def 1.052 | Sandefjord attack 0.626 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.594 • Poisson stance: Brann (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sandefjord xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Sandefjord kick off?
Brann vs Sandefjord kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 12 July 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Sandefjord?
Brann 3 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Brann vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Sandefjord part of?
Brann vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 53% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brann and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Sandefjord in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.83 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.17
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Brann xG
Total xG
2.76
1.05
Sandefjord xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
4%
23.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Brann and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Brann and 1.05 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Brann have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Brann, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sandefjord's form line: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sandefjord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandefjord.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 0.67 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Early Season
Sandefjord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Have Brann or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Brann
5
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Sandefjord have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Brann 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Sandefjord?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 50%, Sandefjord 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Brann and 50% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brann's recent matches and 33% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Brann's matches and 50% of Sandefjord's.
Do Brann and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.71 xG and Sandefjord 1.05 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against Sandefjord attack 0.63 / defence 1.30, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 53% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 23%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 83%, Sandefjord 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Brann scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.