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Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Sandefjord 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Sandefjord 1-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.14 xG and Sandefjord 1.43 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brann fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Sandefjord attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 53% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 25%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Sandefjord 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights