Brann 0-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brann at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host Mjondalen at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Brann Stadion this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Brann carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 69% versus Mjondalen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 69% | Mjondalen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.49 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.938 / defence 1.149 | Mjondalen attack 0.621 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.340. Data: 13 Brann games / 13 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 50% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 24%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Mjondalen 4.17. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Brann 83% | Mjondalen 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 50% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Brann 1.49 / Mjondalen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.938 / def 1.149 | Mjondalen attack 0.621 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Brann (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Mjondalen xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Mjondalen kick off?
Brann vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 August 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Mjondalen?
Brann 0 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Brann vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Mjondalen part of?
Brann vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 50% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Brann and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Mjondalen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Mjondalen in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.94x the league average against Mjondalen's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.82
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Brann xG
Total xG
2.44
0.96
Mjondalen xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Brann and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Brann and 0.96 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann's recent record stands at 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 8L across 13 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brann by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brann have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.85 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Mjondalen away?
Brann's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.33 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Brann's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Brann
2
Draws
2
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Brann have won 0, Mjondalen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Mjondalen?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 83%, Mjondalen at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Brann and 67% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Brann's games and 67% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Brann's matches and 67% of Mjondalen's.
Do Brann and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjondalen defy the odds to beat Brann 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Brann 0-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.49 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Brann fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Mjondalen attack 0.62 / defence 1.18, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 50% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 24%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Mjondalen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 69%, Mjondalen 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Mjondalen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.