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Brann cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Kristiansund BK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Kristiansund BK 4-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.51 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.45 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Kristiansund BK attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 39% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 37%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 62%, Kristiansund BK 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brann's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Brann (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights