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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brann and KFUM Oslo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann and KFUM Oslo finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.62 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.87 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 48% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 26%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 68%, KFUM Oslo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brann's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights