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Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Bryne 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Bryne 3-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.29 xG and Bryne 0.96 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bryne outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.18 / defence 0.87 against Bryne attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 67% | Draw 18% | Bryne 14%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights