Brann 5-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Brann (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Aalesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aalesund make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Eliteserien appearances (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Aalesund (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Brann's favour (1.60 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Brann 2W, Aalesund 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 3–1 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 56% versus Aalesund 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 61% | Aalesund 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.14 xG and Aalesund 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.943 / defence 0.953 | Aalesund attack 0.717 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.365. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Brann games / 48 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 65% | Draw 20% | Aalesund 15%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Aalesund 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Brann (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Brann 56% | Aalesund 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 65% | Draw 20% | Aalesund 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Brann 2.14 / Aalesund 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.943 / def 0.953 | Aalesund attack 0.717 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Brann (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Aalesund xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Aalesund kick off?
Brann vs Aalesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Aalesund?
Brann 5 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Brann vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Aalesund part of?
Brann vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 65% chance of winning, Aalesund a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Brann and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Aalesund?
Record (3 meetings): Brann 2W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Brann and Aalesund in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brann's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.72x) against Brann's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
65%
1.54
20%
5.10
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Brann xG
Total xG
3.08
0.93
Aalesund xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
12%
8.53
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
55.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Brann and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Brann and 0.93 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Brann have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 9W 3D 6L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund's form line: 3W 1D 14L from 18 games, 0.56 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brann have posted 2.12 PPG from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aalesund have gone 0W 0D 8L from 8 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aalesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.67 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 9W 3D 6L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 3W 1D 14L in their last 18 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Aalesund away?
Brann's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.12 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 5-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Brann
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Aalesund?
From 5 meetings on record, Brann have won 3, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Aalesund 2-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Aalesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 62%, Aalesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Brann and 75% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Brann's games and 50% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Brann's matches and 75% of Aalesund's.
Do Brann and Aalesund tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Aalesund 5-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.14 xG and Aalesund 0.93 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Aalesund attack 0.72 / defence 1.36, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 65% | Draw 20% | Aalesund 15%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 61%, Aalesund 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Brann (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.